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The Almighty Buck Entertainment Games

Full Report On Holiday Game Crunch Released 20

Posted by simoniker from the more-more-more dept.
Thanks to GameSpy for its article analyzing Banc Of America's in-depth report on videogame prospects for Christmas 2004. The report, previously referenced on Slashdot earlier this month, is now available for download [PDF link], and GameSpy explains the report "[isn't] trying to predict what the best games of the holiday are going to be. They're predicting what the best selling games are going to be, and which ones will meet expectations set by company leaders." The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season, just behind GTA: San Andreas", and suggest that certain titles, specifically "Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2", should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."
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Full Report On Holiday Game Crunch Released More

Full Report On Holiday Game Crunch Released

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  • Product placement /advertizing of Bank of America. it was actually abnoctious to red "Banc of America advises to play Doom 3" and similar sentences. Bank of Amerika should not go hand and hand in games BAN Gamespot BOOO BOOO BOOO

  • Release Dates and Indie Releases (Score:5, Interesting)

    by MiceHead ( 723398 ) on Tuesday July 27, 2004 @07:24PM (#9817619) Homepage
    The Banc analysts predict that Halo 2 "will be the second-best seller of the holiday season..." and suggest that certain titles should be moved beyond the holiday season entirely, to "avoid big-name products coming out on the same time-frame."

    Release dates are always tricky, but I think there's a solution aside from Banc of America's proposed delay. Just as the concurrent releases (scroll down) [imdb.com] of Batman, Lethal Weapon, and Indiana Jones crushed UHF [imdb.com], high-profile games such as Doom 3 have the potential to utterly destroy the smaller competition, such as our own title [dejobaan.com], scheduled for an August release. However, here are three ways we hope to avoid being eaten:

    • Complementary Benefits - If the competition leaves something desirable out of their design, a developer can cater to that. Untold zillions of people (myself, included) have enjoyed a myriad of games in the first-person shooter genre. Many of these players would love to create their own levels and content, but lack the time or technical expertise to do this, even with the mod tools available. We want our offering to allow anyone adept enough to play our game to be able to create within it. I'm hoping that folks of all ages can play other FPSes, and still enjoy our game, for that reason.
    • Consistency - From a marketing standpoint, the release of a small title is almost a non-event; rather, steady and consistent support causes awareness to gradually snowball. After all, most FPS fans know than Doom 3 will be released on 7/20/2004 [stargeek.com] (just kidding), but unless PGC and CWG suddenly do big pieces on indie developers, they won't be slapping us onto their covers. So, for us, it's a long-haul grassroots thing -- hopefully, this means that players will benefit from lots of fresh, new content over the next 12 months.
    • Differentiation - This is where the consumer stands to win the most: developers can recognize saturation in a sub-genre and create products that evolve it. Or: to those who lament the current state of the myriad identical MMOGs, don't fret -- it's only a prelude to evolution! Our biggest example of this is the ability to create arenas. But we also apply it in small ways; whereas Doom 3 and Half Life 2 approach hyperrealism, we're trying for the oppsite effect [dejobaan.com]. Aesthetics are not central to our game, but I hope players will consider it pretty enough -- and different enough -- to enjoy.

    Reliance on the Big Launch seems like a losing proposition for all but the highest-profile titles. I'm banking on the slow, steady approach, which may end up with my being able to eat for another year, or my living in a cardboard box. I'll let you know in 2005.

    ____________________________
    Inago Rage - Coming Summer 2004 [dejobaan.com]
    • That looks pretty sweet, and from the little I can see, it does what you say with the differentiation and such. I really do hope that consistancy thing works out for you, because I'm sure you know as well as everybody else that the other two aren't really going to cut it.

      Best of luck, I'll look into buying it when it comes out.

  • Not the first time (Score:4, Insightful)

    by Spleener12 ( 587422 ) * on Tuesday July 27, 2004 @09:31PM (#9818399)
    Good games have very often been screwed sales-wise by unlucky timing of releases. For example, I know that Lunar 2: Eternal Blue (for the PSX), a game which IMHO surpasses SSSC in every way, did not do nearly as well sales-wise. Why? Because Lunar 1 was released in early summer 1999, a time when no other big games were out, whereas Lunar 2 came out in mid-December 1999, not even a month after Final Fantasy 9.

    Interestingly enough, there seem to be no RPGs among any of The Big Ones, aside from KOTOR2, and that's still a maybe for the holidays.

  • Singing: Give Prince of Persia a Chance..... (Score:5, Insightful)

    by superultra ( 670002 ) on Tuesday July 27, 2004 @10:11PM (#9818612) Homepage
    Bloodrayne 2, Terminator 3: The Redemption, The Red Star, 100 Bullets, Crash n' Burn, Predator: Concrete Jungle, and Shadow Hearts 2

    So basically, if your game is crap don't release when everyone else does. Makes sense. These games all look horrible even from this early on.

    Although what I'm much more concerned about are the Prince of Persias and Beyond Good and Evils of this Christmas, like, for example, um, Prince of Persia 2 which is set for November. You'd think that Ubisoft would've learned after last year, but once againt hey're sticking POP2 smack dab in the week before the storm. Why? It's like throwing an olympian runner into a ring with 5 500 pound men and asking him to sumo wrestle. Prince of Persia 2 will be amazing, but there's no way it can hold its own against a GTA, Halo sequel, Half Life sequel, and KOTOR sequel. There are other top tier 300 pound titles as well, like Call to Duty for consoles, or the Sims go ebonic (Urbz), or a LOTR EA game, or Need For Speed Underground sequel. You know, titles people know about.

    Ubisoft, if you're reading, give POP the space it needs. Throw it out mid January when the kiddies are trading in GTA:SA and Halo 2 after playing it 14 hours a day during their break. I promise: it'll do better.
    • So basically, if your game is crap don't release when everyone else does. Makes sense. These games all look horrible even from this early on.

      Don't just sling insults around like that without even seeing a real demo. After playing The Red Star demo at Comic-Con, I was willing to give Acclaim another chance (yes, even after BMXXX). It's going to be a good game in the spirit of the old arcade brawlers.
      • Don't just sling insults around like that without even seeing a real demo.

        Why not? Breeze through the latest issue of your favorite gaming magazine and there's so much gushing enthusiasm in the previews it's like reading 50 unrequitted love letter off the floor of a middle school.

        What we need is a little cynicism. I'll be honest gdark, I've been watching the game industry for some time and when I think a game is crap I'm rarely surprised. And let's be honest: playing a game for 10-20 minutes in t

  • Can Acclaim afford to finish or delay any games? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by TheLoneDanger ( 611268 ) on Tuesday July 27, 2004 @11:07PM (#9818916)
    Acclaim (with The Red Star and 100 bullets from the report) has been facing a number of difficulties, and is pretty damn close to being totally bankrupt [ign.com]. They are pretty screwed since they can't really afford to advertise much; they can't afford to have their titles be overshadowed at Christmas and they also can't afford to delay very long (if at all) either.

    Which kind of sucks since The Red Star and 100 Bullets are pretty damn good comics. Still, I'd rather have Acclaim go under and not release bad games on licenses I like (hopefully selling the rights to a publisher that can make them into GOOD games) than have Acclaim do it's usual mediocre job.
  • First I'll get Doom 3, so I can make Independence War 3 with the engine. Gawd, with the design doc I wrote so far it's going to take forever and a day.

    Then I'll get BloodRayne 2, just to stare at the bondage chick and not get busted for pron...

    Then I'll get Half Life 2, just to see what would happen if you used the manipulator gun on someone's crotch.

    And on Christmas I'll download Real Life version ??.??.?? I'm not sure what it's like 'outside' yet but (omg) I may check! Life SEEMS good.

    In other ne
  • Why are all the prime releases still slated for christmas? It's this "Computer Games == Toys" attitude that the industry caught back in the 8 bit days when , yes , a large part of their market was still under 18.

    These days a Xmas release of a game (especially an over 18 rated one) might actually HURT sales. I'm thinking of the players with children here who won't want to blow 30-50 notes on a game at such a crucial time of year.

    The problem is this game is cycle is self-sustaining. A lot of games are so
    • It's not really a case of games == toys, in the sense that you are thinking. The sad facts are that consumers spend more money that time of year. They aren't just buying toys either. If you watch TV, you'll see more comericals by Best buy and circuit city for big TVs, DVD players, and the like. These big ticket items aren't going to kiddies.

      You'll also see this in other industries as well. When do block buster movies come out? There is the summer time where they throw out popcorn flicks, and the winter ho

    • The christmas retail beast... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by LordZardoz ( 155141 ) on Wednesday July 28, 2004 @10:54AM (#9822502)
      The beast may feed its self to some extent, as you suggest. However, the basic fact still remains that christmas is one of the few times of the year when pretty much every consumer can be counted on to be spending money on non-essential crap.

      While a video gaming consumer cannot be expected to drop 30-50 on every game they would want at that time of year, the consumer can be counted on to do that at least once.

      You are half right though. A good game release in Feburary can exceed a good game released in December. But an excellent game will do better when released in December then it could in February. Gamers will pick up a good game any time of year. But casual gamers probably only buy once in a while, and December is one of those times.

      END COMMUNICATION

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