Prognosticating Sony's Downfall 175
Via Evil Avatar, an article on About.com theorizing Sony's defeat at the hands of Nintendo and Microsoft. An interesting piece of speculation. From the article: "Sony introduces the PS3, sporting far more powerful hardware than either alternative system, limited online system support, and a fairly solid launch line-up. Nintendo introduces the Revolution. At the same time that the Revolution and PS3 hit the store shelves, Microsoft reduces the price of the Xbox 360 and releases Halo 3. Halo 3, combined with the price reduction, effectively undercuts the momentum of the PS3 launch. Customers have to decide between the 360 with Halo 3, the PS3 with a potentially high price tag, and the Revolution, priced near current generation game consoles."
Good news. (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Good news. (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Good news. (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Good news. (Score:2)
Re:Good news. (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Good news. (Score:2)
Re:Good news. (Score:2)
Re:Good news. (Score:2)
Re:Good news. (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Good news. (Score:2, Funny)
We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:5, Interesting)
No, no, no no, no no. Customers don't have to decide between the three. They can choose more than one. I own all three (actually four, Dreamcast too) of this generations systems. Eventually I will own all three of the next gens too. There is no law that says I can only get one and I won't.
Not to mention that these predictions have little to no value. They are just predictions. People have predicted that Microsoft will flop. People predict that Nintendo will go the way of Sega. People have predicted that the world will end. It's just someone's opinion and while there's a chance it'll happen, whatever, there's a chance it won't too. We'll just have to wait and see.
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2, Informative)
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2, Informative)
Factor in the fact that the PS3 will possibly be delayed until 2007 (Sony never gave a firm US date, and who's to say it won't also be delayed in Japan?) and a Halo 3 release date that coincides with the PS3's is entirely possible and to the optimist, even likely.
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2, Interesting)
The possibility is that MS could bundle Halo 3 with an HD-DVD drive or even a BluRay drive if HD-DVD remains as dead as it is right now...
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:5, Insightful)
The average family has a lot of financial stress. Even affording one next-gen system would be tough. In the end, it might be a choice of the Revolution that you can afford, or the PS2 that you will have to save up for in time for next year's Christmas. As for me, I will likely pick up a Revolution after the first round of price cuts (probably a year after release). I do not see a 260 or PS3 in my future.
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
Maybe, but the "videogame generation" who grew up on the NES is now in their 20s and 30s, probably don't have a family to support, and are willing to buy 2-3 consoles. We have money, and we are the gamers.
You are not the sort who supports
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:3, Interesting)
Huh? What planet are you from? People in their 20's are generally starting a family. People in their 30's are mostly firmly entrenched in doing the "family" thing. I am a part of the Nintendo generation. My first console was an Odyssey 2 (look it up).
If you look at the demographics, I think that you
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
About 40% of the gamers I know have multiple consoles.
The average family has a lot of financial stress. Even affording one next-gen system would be tough.
If your bottom line was profit, what interest would you have in financially stressed families?
As for me, I will likely pick up a Revolution after the first round of price cuts (probably a year after release). I do not s
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
And about 75% of people I know who would not consider themselves gamers have a PS2. These are the people that buy it and play maybe once a week or once a month. They purchase no more than 10 games over the life of the machine. In most cases they rent what they play.
There are a LOT of households that have a console that are not "gamer households". Some of these have it because a kid got one for Christmas one year, some of them are 20 and 30 somethings w
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
I don't know...ask Wal*mart.
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
Re:We Have More Options That Just Those Decisions (Score:2)
And Then (Score:2, Funny)
if (Halo.3 > DRM.rootkit)
DONT_BUY_PS3
Re:And Then (Score:3, Insightful)
And frankly, I'm not willing to trust that the PS3 won't try hacki
Hmmm... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
If they were still innovating like they did back in the days of the VCR and the Walkman then they wouldn't be needing to treat customers like criminals in order to screw money out of them. Until Sony gets rid of its IP-based divisions it's only got a long spiral into self-destruction to look forward to.
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Yes, Sony introduced the Walkman to the world, but if you'll remember correctly they were the losing party in the VCR/BetaMax war. I guess you could claim that they were innovative with the Beta, but it doesn't appear to have gotten them anywhere.
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Of course, this is all from my memory, which could be wrong. Take anything in the internet with a block of salt.
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Re:Hmmm... (Score:3, Insightful)
Microsoft is certainly no better. I wouldn't be surprised if they're astroturfing some of the anti-Sony sentiment in the hopes of making people forget about "Trusted" Computing, DRM, et cetera.
Nintendo are the ones who invented unlicensed third-party lockout chips for home consoles, censored tons of games, and fixed retail
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Re:Hmmm... (Score:3, Informative)
When I think of MS, I think:
- First company to require online/phone activation of a mainstream product (Windows XP).
- Inventor of Windows Media, the format that made useless an entire library of "free*" (as in "*some restrictions apply") music I'd downloaded when the authentication server was turned off.
- First company to market a game console that depends on an online service for a good portion of its functionality.
- First company (at least, t
Re:Hmmm... (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Of course they are. Palladium? Like I mentioned? That's what the "Trusted" platform is all about.
Xbox Live is nothing but an added feature.
It started out that way. Now if you don't have Live, games like Ninja Gaiden are crippled. Oblivion on the 360 is going to REQUIRE you to buy items in the Live Marketplace in order to get the full experience.
This isn't an intrusive or crippled tec
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
(Which you said was a bad thing on the console) In fact, if you took away my internet connection, I wouldn't even use my computer at all.
Do I blame Microsoft for that?
If you downloaded 'free' music which required an authentication server...you made a bad choice. Or at least one that you should have known would end up causing problems in the future. My guess is that you signed up for a
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
Any modern desktop OS meets that criteria, because so many applications are internet-based.
There is no good reason for Xbox owners to have to have Live in order to get the full version of games like Ninja Gaiden on the original and Oblivion on the 360.
My guess is that you signed up for a free trial of one of the music services...then when the free trial expired, you didn't pony up the mon
Re:Hmmm... (Score:2)
The difference with Sony is that it used to produce interesting hardware and defend fair use. Sony would be the one with the cool harddrive-based MP3 player if they hadn't fallen prey to this content control obsession. Even before the rootkit people were writing articles about Sony's self-destructive actions with th
Hit the History Books (Score:4, Insightful)
By my reckoning, nobody. (Atari: 2600 era. Nintendo: NES and to some degree SNES. Sony: PS1 & PS2.)
If anyone's going to make it, it's Sony. (I mean that beyond the obvious historically-tautological aspects of the statement; they have a better chance IMHO because this is clearly a "more of the same" generation, which I think is a first, and that makes it easier to maintain momentum. I think the best way to understand the Revolution is as an attempt to disrupt the momentum by disrupting the "more of the same"-ness of this generation.) On the other hand, flaming people for questioning it is probably excessively fanboy-ish. I wouldn't commit to that exact scenario, personally, but scenarios where Sony is not #1 are quite plausible.
Re:Hit the History Books (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Hit the History Books (Score:2)
-Someone much smarter than myself
What does this mean for the console wars? Sony was able to take the lead when the largest number of sheep started buy consoles. The drones and dregs only know the names Sony and Playstation. Need further proof? We game in sequel city. Seriously, how many versions of Madden can one person own?
Nintendo will retain its niche and possibly carve a new one, Microsoft will throw more money into the hole and
Re:Hit the History Books (Score:2)
Yeahhhhh... You know something else that hasn't happened in the video game industry before? Somebody other than Nintendo topping the Game Boy. In light of the lackluster performance of the PSP, do you still believe Sony has the ability to pull a hat trick out of their rear end?
Besides, the only reason this is a "more of the same" competition is because of the tactics of both Microsoft and Sony, looking for little else beyond keeping it "more of the same," a compet
Re:Hit the History Books (Score:2)
While a PS2 is actually the only current-gen console I own (unless you count the Dreamcast), it's because of the games, not the hardware; I think the hardware has some amazingly bad design decisions in it and is clearly the worst hardware of the current generation.
Re:Hit the History Books (Score:2)
By my reckoning, nobody. (Atari: 2600 era. Nintendo: NES and to some degree SNES. Sony: PS1 & PS2.)
Yes, but there is one other pattern you should see with that list. Each time the previous generation's champion was displaced, it was by a company that was releasing their first console. I'm sure others can come up with other reasons why this is the case, but the first one that comes to my mind is
Re:Hit the History Books (Score:2)
Oops...I apologize for my poor syntax there...it should have been:
<sarcasm>The other variable is of course the Phantom -- if it comes out this generation, then it'll fit the new company coming to market, and will of course blow the other three away.</sarcasm>
Insufficient (Score:5, Funny)
- Reduce or eliminate backwards compatibility, like the Silver Slimline PS2 but more so
- Implement nodelocking of game- and video-disks, using the technology they've recently secured a US patent on
- Make game development as difficult as possible and as different from conventional architectures as possible to reduce the number of game companies willing to crossdevelop for or port to the new system
Only then can they guarantee the PS3 will flop.
Re:Insufficient (Score:2)
You mean like not being able to take your old memory cards?
Re:Insufficient (Score:2)
...allow Vadar to discover that Luke has a twin sister? Then, their failure is complete. If Luke will not turn to the Dark Side, then perhaps she will.
10 pages? bleh (Score:5, Interesting)
Anyway, I'm not convinced either way, it's still wait and see. With this subject matter, you'd be better off getting a random games.slashdot.org reader to come up with a comparison between the machines and the possible outcomes. Plus, you might not have to deal with 10 pages of ads.
Re:10 pages? bleh (Score:5, Insightful)
It just won't be the 'it' console, which is okay with Nintendo.
I think it's okay with Nintendo fans too. Not the fanboys but the fans. I'm okay with Nintendo not being number one. As long as they are cranking out good games what do I care if PS3 is outselling them?
Halo 3 is not the 'killer app' it used to be. Halo 2 didn't sell more xboxes.
True but Halo 2 came out after X-box was in a lot of homes. People who loved Halo didn't have to buy a new X-box to enjoy Halo 2. In order to enjoy Halo 3 they have to buy a 360. Halo and Halo 3 have more in common than Halo 2 and Halo 3. Halo 3 will definitely sell 360s.
The PS3 will have exclusive titles that people will be willing to buy one for. And they are promising on release now, but we'll see.
Revolution will have exclusive titles that people will be willing to buy one for too. SMB Melee, Mario Kart, Zelda, Metroid, these are going to be exclusive and they're going to sell systems. I agree that PS3 will sell systems for the same reason though.
The launch of the ybox is not looking good currently, due to the restricted inventory and lack of revolutionary single platform games. However, microsoft will throw money to make it 'good', I'm sure.
Lord knows they have enough money.
Anyway, I'm not convinced either way, it's still wait and see. :)
100% with you on this.
-BigD
Re:10 pages? bleh (Score:2)
I agree with you on the rest of these points. `8r)
Re:10 pages? bleh (Score:2)
Re:10 pages? bleh (Score:2)
As someone has already posted, this isn't a very good argument as most of the people who bought Halo 2 already had an XBox because of the original Halo. That's like saying GTA:SA didn't sell more PS2's...it probably didn't, but that's because most people already had a PS2 because of GTA or GTA:VC. You can't expect games that come out late in a generation's lifespan to be console movers. You better believe, however, that Halo3
Man, it's so early yet this getting old already (Score:2, Funny)
Highly doubtful! (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Highly doubtful! (Score:2)
Sure...because Halo: CE and Halo 2 weren't big titles for the xbox, nor was Fable, KOTOR, DOA3, etc.
Sure there is Halo 3 for the 360 but At the rate Halo 2 was going, it won't be anything more than a good game.
Halo 2 is the most popular game on the xbox, so I'd say that the rate that Halo 2 was going would bode well for Halo 3. Even if Halo 2 was a disappointment to some, that doesn't mean that the next game in
Re:Highly doubtful! (Score:2)
Even though you still have to pay for a subscription to Xbox Live Gold to get all of the features, the vast majority of people who buy an Xbox will get a free trial to Xbox Live Gold, many of
Re:Highly doubtful! (Score:3, Insightful)
Even though you still have to pay for a subscription to Xbox Live Gold to get all of the features, the vast majority of people who buy an Xbox will get a free trial to Xbox Live Gold, many of wh
Re:Highly doubtful! (Score:2)
Revolution (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:Revolution (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Revolution (Score:3, Interesting)
The shareholders will. If the difference is between being #3 (or #6 as you say) and making $10M in profit and being #1 and making $100M in profit, then you can be sure that the shareholders will care. Now, what is more likely the case is that Nintendo knows that in order to get close to #1 or #2 they would have to spend too much money in marketing. Therefore, the profit wouldn't be any greater (or perhaps
Re:Revolution (Score:2)
Re:Revolution (Score:2)
Re:Revolution (Score:2)
The
Duplicate Article (Score:3, Funny)
This article was posted on Slashdot on October 25th talking about how the Microsoft's game console was going to be released and completely crush Sony's.
I realize it's a different author but its pretty much the same talking points. Microsoft has endless supplies of money, it will be easier to program the XBox than the PS2, people will have to choose one or the other (since we all know that at night when everyone is asleep the two systems would fight to the death), blah, blah, blah.
Do we really need to have such similar articles posted within the same 1,846 day span?
Not all of us are Holo fanboys (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm sure Halo sold well, but I' equally sure there are many more like me out there.
Having said all that I'll be buying the 360 because it's out first. Later I'll likely get a PS3.
Re:Not all of us are Holo fanboys (Score:2)
I would say you must be new here, but since your UID is 5 digits, you can't be that new (unless you bought it on ebay, of course). Therefore, you must be using sarcasm, as every time Halo or any other FPS on a console is brought up, there are at least 50 postings about "Does it come with a mouse and keyboard?" or "I can't play FPS's with my thumbs." In fact, I think it is even more common than the "Does it run on linux" comments when discussi
I need to start a website (Score:2)
This article would be great, but it's based on two longshot assumptions. First, that Microsoft will lower the price of the 360 any time in the next 18-24 months. They probably won't. They certainly wont if it's still selling well at the higher price. Second, that Halo 3 will be ready in time for the PS3 launch. It probably won't. The tenative release date is "Fall 2006" right now (Two seasons past the tenative PS3 release). That's before you factor in t
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
So who won last round?
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
If you consider surviving winning, then yes. IF you consider coming in with most units/games sold then it was the PS2.
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
Having the most market share isn't a metric that anybody sane uses to measure success anyway. At least not since the dot-com boom ended. In the real world, success is typically measured in profit on a balance sheet and through survival on a resume. On the balance sheet, Sony and Nintendo both won, Sega lost, and Microsoft lost
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
You could probably make an argument for Microsoft losing too, since they lost money on their product, but it was available and maintained demand through the entire generation so I'd say they 'won' just like the others.
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
Re:I need to start a website (Score:2)
Re:FPS on a console... (Score:2)
PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:4, Informative)
What? I admit that I haven't been following this for the last month or so, but from what I've seen the XBox 360 will be at least as powerful as the PS3. Yes, the PS3 has a bunch of processing units in its cell processor, but most of them are special-purpose and not as powerful as the XBox 360's three generic cores.
Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:5, Insightful)
Processing power != fun
(or for you VHDL jocks, processing_power
(or PERL, processing_power ne fun)
What really matters is the GAMEPLAY. A great game with fewer polygons is still a great game. A crappy game with more polygons is still a crappy game. This war will NOT be won or lost on technical specifications. It will be decided by the game quality, availability, and price. Period. In the end, that is what people look at.
Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:2)
Processing power != fun
(or for you VHDL jocks, processing_power
(or PERL, processing_power ne fun)
What really matters is the GAMEPLAY. A great game with fewer polygons is still a great game. A crappy game with more polygons is still a crappy game. This war will NOT be won or lost on technical specifications. It will be decided by the game quality, availability, and price. Period. In the end, that is what people look at.
Yes very very true. Sony actually has been better i
Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:2)
No, that's only one factor among several -- the quality, availability, and price of games for a console are only a major factor when one of those three aspects is at an extreme. What is t
Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:2)
Both have a PPC based chip running at 3.2 ghz. Except the 360 has a shared cache, while the Cell has multiple cashes. Speed is a hard thing to calculate with such different architectures but gener
Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:2)
Another part of the problem is that the industry likes porting games across multiple platforms as cheaply as possible, which means that multiplatform titles will probably take as lit
Re:PS3 = far more powerful hardware than 360? (Score:2)
Another part of the problem is that the industry likes porting games across multiple platforms as cheaply as possible, which means that multiplatform titles will probably take as lit
BOYCOTT SONY (and do yourself a favour) (Score:3, Interesting)
Second, Sony will not be destroyed by the boycott. And to your benefit it will motivate Sony to perform so very, very well that they regain their loyal customers. This time next year they'd re-release the product with such stunning capabilities that you'd happily purchase it at even a premium price. Your boycott will spur them to outperform themselves.
Win-win situation all around. Boycott Sony.
Re:BOYCOTT SONY (and do yourself a favour) (Score:3, Informative)
Summarized:
Re:BOYCOTT SONY (and do yourself a favour) (Score:2)
Oh, wait, I almost forgot. I boycott ALL "copy-protected" CDs already. If there's a copy-protected CD that I want, I'll purposely avoid buying it and go download it from some gnutella network or something like that... or just live without it. Everyone needs to consistently boycott copy-protected CDs, that's the moral of this story, really.
Honestly, I think that should do the trick. These divisions within Sony are just t
Problems with PS3 (Score:2)
Short of falling back on strong support from Unreal 3...
Compare this with Xbox 360 (with MS pushing its XNA platform for combined Windows and 360 development) and Revolution (which is essentiall
Re:FACT (Score:2)
Re:FACT (Score:2)
Re:FACT (Score:2)
Don't obscure mahjong games sell really well in Japan?
Re:Fanboys and Whatnot. (Score:2)
Why? The US is a larger market, and Europe's not too bad either. I imagine the US and Europe have more room for overall growth in the console market anyway, since if I'm not mistaken, a higher percentage of Japanese people are already gamers than either of the other two markets. Of course, I could be wrong about the growth thing, but the bottom line is that Microsoft can do just fine even if the Japane
Re:Fanboys and Whatnot. (Score:2)
For video games, Japan is still the larger market. Although Games are making inroads in North America.
Isn't that what Sony did and is doing? (Score:2)
Now Sony is trying to hype the PS3 as some kind of supercomputer playing video game system with their Cell processors, their Blu-Ray discs will become the new industry replacement for DVDs and that they're gonna nail the coffin shut on Nintendo (again).
I'd say Microsoft i
Re:Isn't that what Sony did and is doing? (Score:2)
Which was all basically true.
I'd say Microsoft is just taking a page out of Sony's marketing book here. Artifical shortage? PS2 did that.
The supply wasn't that low, also there was a true shortage of dvd lasers at the time. The shortage may nto have been planned.
First to lau
Re:Maybe to Americans... (Score:2)
The difference is that the Revolution will probably fully support traditional games out-of-the-box. (I think I saw something from Iwata or Miyamoto saying that the nunchaku attachment would be included, and probably a traditional shell as well.) That's hugely important. Things that don't come with the system never succee
Re:Maybe to Americans... (Score:2)
Final Fantasy XI will be released for the X360, bundled with the upcoming new expansion pack. FFXII is probably still in development for the PS2, but ultimately S-E is getting more hardware agnostic; they actually made games for the GameCube.
At this point, I don't think anybody knows what consode FFXIII (or DQIX, for that matter) will grace. For all we know, they'll be on the Revolution.
And there
Re:Maybe to Americans... (Score:2)
While it may be likely that FFXIII is "unveiled" at the time of the PS3 release, it probably wouldn't be released for another year or two after that, so it probably won't drive too many console sales initially. Since FFXII isn't due out until the second half of 2006 in the US, I find it highly unlikely that FFXIII would be released within 2 years of that date. And even then, I would take those d